Dr Sandra Peter leads the muzic-ivan.info Firm Insights strategic initiative to deliver on the University of muzic-ivan.info Firm School’s commitment to being an engaged, pertinent and prominent voice on significant worries and also fads.
You are watching: All of the following were predictions made in megatrends except which one?
Kai is Professor of Indevelopment Technology and also Organisation in the Discipline of Firm Information Equipment at The College of muzic-ivan.info Business School. Kai"s research study interemainder is in Disruptive Technologies, Enterpclimb Social Media, Virtual Work, Collaborative Technologies and also the Philosophy of Technology.
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This week: we look back at 2019 and forward to 2020, and also reflect on just how we affix technology and business patterns with worldwide megapatterns. Sandra Peter (muzic-ivan.info Business Insights) and also Kai Riemer (Digital Disruption Research Group) satisfy when a week to put their own spin on news that is impacting the future of company in The Future, This Week.
The stories this week
01:18 Looking earlier on 2019 predictions
08:54 Understanding worldwide megatrends
17:56 Our predictions for 2020
Other stories we bring up
The NYT predicts what devices will attack your life in 2019
INC.com tech predictions for 2019
IBM’s technology predictions for 2019
Deloitte’s annual technology fads for 2020
Forrester’s predictions for 2020
ZDNet’s patterns for 2020
Our podactors through Hugh Durrant-Whyte on a future of automation
What was sassist at Davos on climate change
Climate Change Takes Center Stage in Davos
Davos on climate and also economics
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This transcript is the product of an synthetic intelligence - human teamwork. Any mistakes are the human"s fault. (Just saying. Accurately yours, AI)
Disclaimer We"d choose to advise that the complying with program might contain actual news, occasional philosophy and ideas that might offfinish some listeners.
Intro This is The Future, This Week on muzic-ivan.info Firm Insights. I"m Sandra Peter, and I"m Kai Riemer. Every week we acquire together and also look at the news of the week. We comment on innovation, the future of service, the weird and also the wonderful and also things that adjust the human being. Okay, let"s start. Let"s start!
Kai Today on The Future, This Week: we look ago, we look forward, we reflect on the future and also also make predictions.
Sandra I"m Sandra Peter. I"m the Director of muzic-ivan.info Firm Insights.
Kai I"m Kai Riemer, professor at the Business School, and also leader of the Digital Disruption Research Group. Hello.
Sandra We"re back.
Kai For Seaboy seven.
Sandra Seven periods. That"s a lot. Happy New Year.
Kai Well, we haven"t done the seventh yet, but yes. Happy Gregorian New Year, happy Lunar New Year.
Sandra Yep, all of them. Happy New Year.
Kai Happy New Decade?
Sandra Well, that remains to be chose.
Kai We"re not going to execute that.
Sandra End of last, or start of next one?
Kai Yeah, one of those. But you understand, 2020 it is.
Kai Oh yeah. And as every year, Megan is earlier.
Sandra Welcome back, Megan.
Kai Megan, that provides us sound good...
Sandra And keeps us honest?
Megan Well, to a level.
Sandra So because it"s the start of the new year, we have to begin through a episode on predictions.
Kai So we did this last year.
Sandra This year, perhaps we should have actually a look at just how well the predictions from last year played out.
Kai Reminding everyone these were not our predictions, yet the ones that we uncovered all over the Web in magazines about eincredibly December, January.
Kai The who is who will certainly come out and pronounce what the year ahead will carry.
Sandra Yeah, last year we had actually The Washington Message tech predictions, CNBC"s predictions, muzic-ivan.info Morning Herald, IBM, Deloitte, The New York Times. And they all pretty a lot rprogressed around equivalent predictions.
Kai So typically you take a piece of tech and also then pronounce exactly how and also why this will certainly be a large thing in the year ahead. So in 2019, the New York Times predicted that virtual assistants would become an also bigger point. I know you have actually, is it Alexa, is it Google? One of those resides in your home? Has it acquired any kind of better last year?
Sandra No, it has actually gained slightly worse, I feel. Well we tried to introduce some added level of privacy to it, and it ah, stopped being helpful.
Kai It forobtained whatever. Which was additionally a trfinish last year, IoT protection. So I feel those 2 fads, defense of IoT devices and also online assistant linked, and also didn"t rather agree with each other. Because incidentally, IoT defense was the second prediction in that New York Times short article that talked around virtual assistants. And I think we mentioned at the time that, yes, that would be a thing in 2019, bereason it was currently a thing in 2018 and also it sucount is a large point in 2020 still. The fact that we have actually even more and more gadgets that are associated, many type of of which come through traditional passwords and practically no security, offering all kinds of earlier doors into corpoprice netfunctions.
Sandra And we"ve done a few stories wright here defense and also IoT came together, we"ve talked about Ring the doorbell agency.
Kai Yeah, tright here was huge stories approximately just how that information is not totally private and it"s being supplied and also sold to police departments, and also has actually been in the news in 2019 a fair little. So kudos to The New York Times on spotting this trend that was currently in full swing. And then tbelow was 5G. And 5G, as we all know new upgraded mobile technology with even more bandwidth, has been and most likely will certainly be in the predictions for the next coming years because it is arriving yearly currently. Also speaking to the truth that periodically what is being referred to as a trfinish, as in 5G, are framework jobs that have the right to take five to 10 years to actually manifest and change anypoint in the world of company or in our daily lives. Since at the start it"s simply antennas and poles, and also then we could have actually the attributes on a phone, however we do not actually quite know in the situation of 5G what brand-new organization applications might be that can actually make use of this bandwidth. Other than VR and AR, which last year was finally going to arrive and also be a large thing, and probably will be this year and also next year because it"s among those modern technologies that is constantly getting here but never before fairly making it.
Sandra Speaking of showing up, self-driving cars were likewise on the list, and also this has actually been somepoint that has made the list for the previous couple of years. And tright here are the very same monitorings that we have actually this year. They"re still not right here.
Kai Interestingly, many type of human being now pertained to agree that fully self-driving cars so-referred to as "Level 5", could not actually be a point, either ever or in the close to future. Except Elon Musk, that has promised to have totally self-driving capabilities by mid-2020. So we"re going to organize our breath.
Sandra Well I"m more than likely not, because I think tright here is a distinction between having actually the capcapability and being able to deploy it on the roads. And I think that"s the allude that likewise Hugh Durrant-Whyte made in one of the interviews that we had, and we"ll encompass that in the shownotes, the truth that this is not an innovation question. The fact that we can actually develop the innovation, yet implementing it on roads that have actually acquired pedestrians, that have got cars that are not autonomous vehicles, offered the restrictions in connectivity, quality of roadways, signage and also so on, it"s a much more complicated question. So we think self-driving cars in downtvery own CBD are still rather far amethod. That is not to say that autonomous vehicles are not below. They"re quite widespcheck out in Australia and provided in mines and ports and other industrial sites, yet not in downtown muzic-ivan.info.
Kai So it turns out then that some of the predictions we looked at last year were already points that are in complete swing. And some of the predictions of things that hadn"t pertained to pass turned out to be wrong, favor self-driving cars. What then is wrong through the method in which we make those tech-specific predictions?
Sandra Well, as you were observing, as soon as we execute technology predictions looking forward, it"s constantly about the innovation and also the trouble that it is solving, what we have the right to automate through it, what we have the right to make more effective, and also never before about the things that surround that technology. And interestingly, if we look eincredibly finish of the year at the analysis of what has actually happened that year, most of the times it"s not the actual failure of the innovation, yet failure of just how the technology has actually played out in the world. All the big scandals that we"ve checked out around social media haven"t been roughly failures of the technology, yet quite about failures of the business version or failures of regulating it or the means in which it has actually been provided by miscellaneous teams, assorted people, miscellaneous corporations.
Kai And so what we"re saying is that those technology predictions they"re sometimes quite beneficial to look at the technology itself and it tells us somepoint about what this innovation can possibly execute, what it"s great for. But they"re not predictions in the sense that they deserve to actually tell a good story about why this point would fix a difficulty in the people, bereason those predictions would need to be around the social conmessage that we"re looking at, not around the tech. And that is regularly lacking.
Sandra And indeed, if you look at the 2020 predictions and also there"s a totality variety of them we might list. They are aobtain the very same sorts of things. So, for instance, Forrester for 2020 predicts artificial knowledge, automation, cyber defense, data and also privacy and also so on. So we aacquire see the same types of things we"ve watched, 5G, Internet of Things on lists.
Kai I discovered one in ZDNet which renders concrete technology predictions. It has points like Intel, the chip manufacturer will have more competition, which aacquire is somepoint that is already happening. Apple is building its very own ARM chips and Nvidia is massive in AI chips, AMD is making a big comeback, so that"s something that is well in train. We get 5G again, we acquire VR aacquire. AI will certainly be almost everywhere. Sure, it will be everywhere and also nowbelow. It also comes in below that, you understand, nowadays any type of algorithm that provides some sort of prediction is going to be dubbed a AI, so we have actually a bit of a naming concern below. And it additionally predicts that, AI will certainly cause problems. But we"ve been discussing this for 2 years currently, the assorted problems that AI have actually. So again, not quite brand-new. Security of IoT gadgets aget. And then cloud computing is a thing that keeps evolving. So these are all points that we must store an eye on in 2020, yet they"re not necessarily points that are totally new because they"re just extrapolations of things that are already well undermeans.
Sandra So the 2 of us sat dvery own previously and we realised we would basically be doing the exact same initially podactors annually. So we believed, how else do civilization think about the future? And we realised that tright here is a whole slew of other posts that just look at the really huge patterns. And in that category, we had actually climate, climate readjust, climate emergency at the forefront of all conversations, definitely below in Australia, but about the people.
Kai The second one would certainly be the fallout from massive technology and also the discussion of the brand-new economic logics that underpin the digital economic situation.
Sandra And then there was the uncertainty and instcapacity neighboring profession tensions around the world as the centre of financial power gradually shifts from the West to the East.
Kai So we have the Trump profession wars and also Brexit and also we have actually all kinds of geopolitical economic worries that are unfolding. The interesting thing right here is that we sassist that many kind of of the tiny range tech fads are also isolated, also reductionist, just looking at tech, these bigger themes, they are so massive that they are actually interconnected and also exceptionally hard to isolate. So we looked at the World Economic Forum in Davos just freshly, and also we realised that matters of global social inetop quality, economic inequality, climate readjust and likewise new logics of communication and significant tech, approximately disinformation and fake news, these are huge troubles that are all interlinked. Even the inequality now plays out in the digital room wbelow some world can afford privacy and also others not. So we have these bigger topics that are certainly pernicious and also really relevant, however they"re virtually one significant problem that really require some reasoning and untangling. So these problems tend to converge. What we need here is a bit even more of a framework to address difficulties at this scale. And I think, Sandra, you simply got off camera recording new videos about what we at the Business School call "megatrends".
Sandra Yes, indeed. So at the Business School we look at 6 megapatterns that drive the future internationally. And for many kind of of our listeners, these are quite familiar things prefer impactful innovation or demographic change, financial power transition, climate and also resource security, what we contact the "magnified individual" and fast urbanisation approximately the world. And whilst these fads are big and also they play out over 25 years or more and also they"ve been in play for fairly a long time, and we have actually a fairly good expertise of the dynamics in them, they are extremely much rerelocated from the Web of Things and digital aides conversations that also play out in the media. So I think what we realised this day is that if you think about the future, a lot of of the stories that we"ve done over the years have actually not been in either of these two camps. Most of the means we believed around the future and also most of the amazing insights we have actually got somewbelow in between.
Kai So what we attempt on the podcast is to reveal the type of connective tproblem that brings together the advances in innovation and also in company and also those bigger fads that drive the civilization economic situation and societal adjust.
Sandra So fairly than looking at singular trends, points like the Web of Things or superannuation, and also quite than simply analysing big sweeping motions such as demographic readjust or an ageing populace or rapid urbanisation, what we"ve tried to perform is make sense of the future. But by analysing just how these fads play out in day to day life, what we attempt to execute is make sense of just how they interact with cultures around them, via financial, political and cultural settings.
Kai So, for instance, many type of of our listeners will certainly remember Old Tvery own Roadway, which is currently our the majority of effective episode ever. I was additionally a hundreds wbelow Lil Nas X, a boy from Atlanta, Georgia, was able to catapult his nation trap song to the peak of the Billboard Counattempt charts by means of using the Chinese platdevelop TikTok. So what we have here is a story that brings to life the phenomenon of TikTok, which, you know, we find in many of the predictions and also tech news as it has taken the West by storm. It"s currently being commonly supplied in Europe, the US and also in Australia, in the conmessage of big megapatterns such as financial powerchange, corporations from the East breaking into Western industries. The intensified individual, brand-new opportunities for people to actually carry out, you recognize, cool shit in the people, and the impactful modern technology such as digital platforms that let us do points at range that weren"t formerly feasible. So we have actually these substantial trends, we have actually TikTok. What does that actually mean? So we provided Old Town Road as a story to lug this to life, and also then derive fairly a couple of lrevenue from this that can be applied in other contexts.
Sandra And this has actually really allowed us to disclose two points. And on the one hand also, it was this incapacity to predict locations of affect or what will certainly be really amazing about the trfinish. It was exceptionally easy to say that TikTok will certainly be huge, yet it was exceptionally difficult to say in what methods that would matter. The second point it enabled us to carry out was, in the context of Old Town Road, understand also the system that was at play. And we desire to remind our listeners that the method the story was initially shown in the majority of Western media was as a story of either singular success or as a story of potential racism, as that song was rerelocated from the nation charts and then made it ago in when a white musician contributed to the track. But what these stories faicaused recognise at that allude was that this was a story of disruption, of the method a Chinese tech platdevelop plays within a conventional industry, such as the country music sector.
Kai Or take as a second example, one in the conmessage of the Web of Things, IoT, associated tools.
Sandra So this was a story we"ve done last year too around the doorbell electronic camera firm Ring. And Ring sells a camera-allowed doorbell which comes on when you ring the bell, or have the right to via an embedded activity sensor, wake up once someone walks approximately the residence and record the motion.
Kai And so the images that are being recorded can then be transmitted to your mobile tool even if you"re not at home, and deserve to additionally be uploaded to an online platform. So this is a timeless instance of the Internet of Things, which let"s remember eincredibly prediction has on the height of its list. And we deserve to collection this in the conmessage of megapatterns such as impactful technology, the intensified individual that have the right to usage innovation to execute brand-new points, in this situation gain a feeling of security in the conmessage of the urbanisation megatrend wbelow we have actually new neighbourhoods of world who could not know each various other as even more and also more people move to cities and also that need a sense of defense to feel safe at house. Now what we usage this story for us to understand the unexpected consequences that sometimes aclimb from the application of these innovations.
Sandra Small trend in the context of these bigger settings as this footage was being uploaded to the agency, but likewise common with world in the neighbourhood. It made people mindful of even more and even more occurrences...
Kai Many type of of which were quite innocuous, but additionally it made civilization even more aware of crime than tright here was actually happening, in the process leading to the opposite outcome as intended, which was, you understand, to get a far better sense of protection, and many type of civilization obtaining more worried by having actually all this information accessible.
Sandra This story likewise permitted us to highlight the paradox of information, the fact that implicit in the majority of technology predictions is that even more information, whether we obtain it via IoT, whether we feed it to algorithms, will in all situations lead to much better decisions and also much better outcomes.
Kai Yet this situation proved that this is not necessarily the instance, and also we were able to illustrate just how these mechanisms work, thereby placing the predictions roughly the use of data and also Internet of Things in a bigger context. So our promise for the year is that we will continue to not only look at the patterns that are unfolding, yet to find the sort of stories that deserve to bring those to life and also assist understand also exactly how the civilizations of modern technology, business and also trends interact. So in Seaboy 7, we will certainly when aacquire look for those stories...
Sandra That assist us understand something amazing, something novel about the future. We have the right to all make predictions around the following innovation to take the human being by storm or the next business practice or the following IPO, however understanding what will matter in the future of organization needs...
Kai Listening to Seaboy salso of The Future, This Week. But prior to we go...
Sandra We always obtain asked to make predictions about the year ahead, we always explain to world that...
Kai And we"re really not in the organization of doing predictions.
Sandra And if you"re trying to understand the future of company, predictions are not the method to go.
Kai So we decided to, after all, come up via some predictions of our own.
Sandra And this is what we"ve come up with: there will be heated debates on social media around whether 2020 is the last year of the previous decade or the initially year of the brand-new decade.
Kai Well, we predict that by December we will certainly otherwise greet each other either via, "wow, it"s been a long year" or "I can not believe the year has gone already".
Sandra As each year, VR will certainly have actually its breakwith year aobtain.
Kai 5G will certainly save arriving and also make its method right into the technology predictions for at least the following 5 years.
Sandra A new organization will certainly be launched reminiscent of Chatroulette, this time connecting hacked web and security cams. The service will be so well-known DIY videos for how to hack your own camera will trfinish on TikTok.
Kai Self-driving cars will arrive on the highways of muzic-ivan.info, but after a week of testing, they will certainly be as well scared to share the roads via people, especially muzic-ivan.info cyclists.
Sandra In 2020, Earth will once again suffer summer and winter at the same time.
Kai An Australian academic..
Sandra Is that you?
Kai It could well be. So an Australian academic will certainly launch a course activity suit against a variety of big US based corporations for utilizing seasoned language in its product announcements, accmaking use of companies of being openly hemispheric just by utilizing phrases favor "the brand-new phone will be released this fall", or "this spring".
Sandra Tbelow will certainly be even more fake news on Facebook, and also President Trump will store tweeting.
Kai With the rise in automation, even more people will certainly connect in uniquely human jobs, such as feeding data to algorithms or cleaning up the mess from algorithmic malfeature.
Sandra And muzic-ivan.info Company Insights will certainly launch its eighth season of The Future, This Week in the second half of this year.
Kai And we could be best on at least among those.
Sandra And that"s all we have actually time for this day.
Kai See you quickly...
Sandra On The Future...
Kai Next off week.
Sandra This week?
Kai Yes, yet following week.
Sandra On The Future, This Week. Next week. Thanks for listening.
Kai Thanks for listening.
Outro This was The Future, This Week, made possible by the muzic-ivan.info Company Insights team and also members of the Digital Disruption Research Group. And eexceptionally week ideal here through us, our Sound editor Megan Wedge, who provides us sound excellent and keeps us hoswarm. Our theme music was created and also played live on a set of garden hoses by Linsey Pollak. You deserve to subscribe to this podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, YouTube, SoundCloud or wherever you gain your podcasts. You can follow us virtual on Flipboard, Twitter or muzic-ivan.info. If you have any kind of news that you desire us to discuss, please sfinish them to muzic-ivan.info
Sandra Go back to last year. "So we did this last year".
See more: Why Are Circuits In Homes Connected In Parallel ? Course 4 Unit 7 Flashcards
Kai Don"t tell me what to do. I have the right to execute this. I"ve done this before. Six seasons dvery own. I"m a veteran.